TL;DR - Best Cup to Open
| Goal | Best Cup to Open |
|---|---|
| Uncommon / Rare Items | Prospect Cup |
| Very Rare / Import Items | All-Star Cup |
| Exotic / Black Market | All-Star Cup |
A High School Stats Project
Back in high school, I was in AP Statistics and noticed a question constantly being asked in the Rocket League community:
“What’s the best tournament cup to open?”
No one had real answers. No data, no case studies, no simulations-just guesses and speculation.
So I decided to do what I could with what I had. I took what I was learning in class about data collection and confidence intervals and applied it to Rocket League.
I watched hundreds of YouTube tournament cup opening videos, carefully logging the results of each cup opened. Then I used that dataset to calculate estimated drop rates and 95% confidence intervals for each item rarity.
Drop Rate Analysis
Here’s the core data table summarizing the results:
Prospect Cup (Cost: 1,200 credits / 50 cups per 60k)
| Rarity | % Drop Chance | 95% Confidence Interval | % Chance Within 60k Credits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uncommon | 63.50% | ± 2.56% | 100.000% |
| Rare | 19.57% | ± 2.11% | 99.998% |
| Very Rare | 12.14% | ± 1.74% | 99.845% |
| Import | 3.90% | ± 1.03% | 86.317% |
| Exotic | 0.74% | ± 0.45% | 30.877% |
| Black Market | 0.15% | ± 0.20% | 7.099% |
| Total Opened | 1,359 |
Challenger Cup (Cost: 4,000 credits / 15 cups per 60k)
| Rarity | % Drop Chance | 95% Confidence Interval | % Chance Within 60k Credits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uncommon | 29.90% | ± 4.50% | 99.515% |
| Rare | 25.88% | ± 4.30% | 98.880% |
| Very Rare | 20.85% | ± 3.99% | 97.005% |
| Import | 17.34% | ± 3.72% | 94.250% |
| Exotic | 5.28% | ± 2.20% | 55.652% |
| Black Market | 0.75% | ± 0.85% | 10.729% |
| Total Opened | 398 |
All-Star Cup (Cost: 12,000 credits / 5 cups per 60k)
| Rarity | % Drop Chance | 95% Confidence Interval | % Chance Within 60k Credits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uncommon | 0.00% | ± 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Rare | 0.00% | ± 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Very Rare | 32.19% | ± 5.36% | 85.665% |
| Import | 32.19% | ± 5.36% | 85.665% |
| Exotic | 25.68% | ± 5.01% | 77.334% |
| Black Market | 9.93% | ± 3.43% | 40.726% |
| Total Opened | 292 |
Champions Cup (Chromatic) (Cost: 20,000 credits / 3 cups per 60k)
| Rarity | % Drop Chance | 95% Confidence Interval | % Chance Within 60k Credits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uncommon | 0.00% | ± 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Rare | 0.00% | ± 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Very Rare | 37.50% | ± 7.70% | 75.586% |
| Import | 28.95% | ± 7.21% | 64.129% |
| Exotic | 27.63% | ± 7.11% | 62.099% |
| Black Market | 5.92% | ± 3.75% | 16.732% |
| Total Opened | 152 |
Simulated Trade-Up Outcomes (60k Credits)
Here’s an estimated breakdown of what 60k credits could net you after trade-ups, starting from lower rarities and working your way up.
Prospect Cup - Expected Item Totals
| Prospect Cup | Uncommon | Rare | Very Rare | Import | Exotic | Black Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trade ups | 635.03 | 195.73 | 121.41 | 39.00 | 7.36 | 1.47 |
| Trade Uncommon | 322.74 | 146.81 | 44.08 | 8.37 | 1.67 | |
| Trade Rare & Below | 185.96 | 51.91 | 9.94 | 1.99 | ||
| Trade Very Rare & Below | 76.19 | 14.80 | 2.96 | |||
| Trade Import & Below | 22.60 | 4.52 | ||||
| Trade Exotic & Below | 5.99 |
Challenger Cup - Expected Item Totals
| Challenger Cup | Uncommon | Rare | Very Rare | Import | Exotic | Black Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trade ups | 89.70 | 77.64 | 62.56 | 52.01 | 15.83 | 2.26 |
| Trade Uncommon | 95.58 | 66.15 | 52.73 | 15.97 | 2.29 | |
| Trade Rare & Below | 81.68 | 55.83 | 16.59 | 2.41 | ||
| Trade Very Rare & Below | 68.35 | 19.10 | 2.91 | |||
| Trade Import & Below | 29.50 | 5.00 | ||||
| Trade Exotic & Below | 8.16 |
All-Star Cup - Expected Item Totals (Direct + Trade-Ups)
| All-Star Cup | Very Rare | Import | Exotic | Black Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trade ups | 32.19 | 32.19 | 25.68 | 9.93 |
| Trade Very Rare | 38.63 | 26.97 | 10.19 | |
| Trade Import & Below | 33.41 | 11.48 | ||
| Trade Exotic & Below | 16.61 |
Champion Cups (Chromatic) - Expected Item Totals (Direct + Trade-Ups)
| Champions Cup | Very Rare | Import | Exotic | Black Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trade ups | 22.50 | 17.37 | 16.58 | 3.55 |
| Trade Very Rare | 21.87 | 17.48 | 3.73 | |
| Trade Import & Below | 20.95 | 4.43 | ||
| Trade Exotic & Below | 7.74 |
Final Conclusions
- For low-tier farming and trade-ups, the Prospect Cup gives you the highest quantity of uncommons, rares, and very rares per credit.
- For high-tier rewards, All-Star Cup offers the best odds for Exotics and Black Markets.
- Challenger offers a middle ground-but tends to be inefficient for both extremes.
- Champions Cup gives strong drop rates but at a high cost per attempt, making it less credit-efficient unless drop rates change in your favor.
This project was both a way to answer a personal curiosity and to apply real statistical methods to something practical (and fun). And now, years later, it still provides value.
Want to dive deeper? You can explore the full dataset here:
Google Sheet - Rocket League Tournament Cup Analysis